Update #48

Welcome to Capriole’s Newsletter Update #48. Where we consolidate the most important Bitcoin news, technicals and fundamentals into a 3-minute update.

Market Summary

In early March we discussed the increased probability of volatility and consolidation in the $60-70K region. That’s exactly what we saw, with price now pushing last cycle’s all time highs at $70.4K as of writing. This is the formation of the zig-zag “SOS” coiling structure we also outlined could be expected to occur in the prior issue.

At the same time, we also saw ETF flows stagnate last week, which now looks like it may be on the mends (TBD). This is all very typical price action behaviour in the zone of all time highs, and is also normal for both months either side of the Halving. I also discussed this consolidation dynamic in the below Tweet:

The biggest Halving in Bitcoin’s history is just days away. For the first time, Bitcoin will become harder than gold, with half its supply growth rate. Pent up institutional demand via the ETFs, a programmatic supply squeeze from the Halving and Bitcoin taking the title as the world’s hardest asset. There’s a lot to look forward to in April.

Technicals

High Time Frame Technicals: Price is trading at new highs on the Weekly and Monthly timeframes having retested support twice in the last month. This is price discovery territory. A very bullish technical structure. There are no significant resistance levels of note above $70K. The best we can do from a purely technical perspective is look to round number resistances (psychological boundaries at $10K increments) and Fibonacci extensions. This leaves $100K as the next most likely major resistance level, with $101K being the notable 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the 2021 all time high ($69K) to the 2022 cycle low ($15K).

You can also imagine quite a few investors would be happy seeing six digit Bitcoin and taking profit in that zone. Though how much of a hurdle $100K is remains to be seen, I would be highly surprised if we didn’t see prices a lot higher over the next 12 months, given the 12 months from the Halving is usually the best risk adjusted period to allocate to Bitcoin through history.

Further price structure developments will allow us to establish lower timeframe daily levels and technical structures as the year develops. For now, open skys are the best thing could ask for.

Fundamentals

Fundamentals and on-chain data help us understand which way the probabilities are skewed at important inflections, and were critical to our navigation of this cycle and identification of the bottom at $16K.

We believe the full picture of fundamentals is best summarized by Capriole’s Bitcoin Macro Index, which we publish live with weekly updates here. This Index includes over 60 of the most powerful Bitcoin on-chain, macro market and equities metrics combined into a single machine learning model. This is a pure fundamentals-only value investing approach to Bitcoin. Price isn’t an input.

Fundamentals continue to trend positively, with continued growth across the Bitcoin Network. However, the rate of change in growth has declined substantially versus the incredible strides taken in February. Suggesting the potential for a possible turning point to emerge, or perhaps simply a speed bump. Nonetheless, while on-chain fundamentals continue to improve, albeit at a slower rate, it’s hard to present a bearish case today.

Chart Of The Week

Introducing Dynamic Range NVT (DRNVT), published live now on Capriole.com/Charts.

NVT is often referred to as Bitcoins “PE Ratio” as it assesses the relative value of the network by considering the onchain transaction throughput to Market capitalisation. We first shared DRNVT back in 2019 (here) as a dynamically adjusting valuation technique to account for NVT’s upward drift. As far as I am aware, the DRNVT metric now published live on Capriole.com/Charts (which uses the original BCHAIN datasource), is not available anywhere else, as TradingView’s data feed stopped in January.

What’s fascinating at this point of the cycle is that DRNVT is currently in a value zone. With price at all time highs, this is a promising and unusual reading for the opportunity that lies ahead in 2024. It’s something we didn’t see in 2016 nor 2020.

The Bottom Line

Technicals and fundamentals are very positively positioned going into the Halving. We are in price discovery territory with the next notable resistance level being $100K. That said, the month of the halving often sees volatility and consolidation, much like we saw through March. As always we should remain open minded to various outcomes over the coming month as a result. Nonetheless, probabilities are starting to skew to the upside once again.

Happy Easter!

Charles Edwards

The Capriole Fund

The Capriole Fund has one goal: outperform Bitcoin.

We are open to professional investors, but the fund has limited spaces.

Share the Post:

2 Responses

  1. Appreciate your work in the space, Charles.

    Would it be possible to overlay bitcoin price chart onto the indicators such as the DRNVT and others for easier tracking of the indicators’ historical performance? Would you guys also consider adding more exchanges such as Kucoin and MEXC into the Guardian Exchange Risk Report? Thank you!

    1. Hi Billy, Yes definitely possible, but we would need to implement a more advanced charting UI at Capriole.com/Charts for that. Something that is on the to-do list for the future!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Disclaimer

The information contained here is provided to you solely for informational purposes only. Opinions and projections included are provided as of the date of publication, may prove to be inaccurate, and are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute an offering. Prospective investors should not treat these materials as advice regarding legal, tax, or investment matters. No recommendations are made to invest in Capriole Investments Limited nor any other investment. An offering may be made only by delivery of a confidential offering memorandum to appropriate investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing in digital assets in general involves risk. Digital asset risks include, but are not limited to, exchange risk, legal risk, hacking risk, market risk, liquidity risk, trading risk and default risk. As with any investment, investing in digital assets could result in loss of investment. Additional digital asset risks are outlined at www.capriole.com/legal. Decisions or actions based on the information provided are at the reader’s own account and risk.

Related Posts

Update #48

Welcome to Bitcoin price discovery, it's been a long time coming. With...

Charles Edwards

Update #47

The era of deep value is over. Bitcoin is fairly valued for...

Charles Edwards

Update #46

With the big Fidelity news, Bitcoin is finally being acknowledged in traditional...

Charles Edwards

Update #45

The brand names of these two behemoths in the traditional asset space...

Charles Edwards

Update #44

Today's Bitcoin ETF launch was the most successful launch in history and...

Charles Edwards

Update #43

ETF fever is coming to a head with approvals expected within the...

Charles Edwards

Update #42

Two major and positive events just unfolded in the Bitcoin space. According...

Charles Edwards

Update #41

Bitcoin is heating up, in both opportunity and across derivatives markets. And...

Charles Edwards

Issue #40

A new major trend has formed. We now have the biggest asset...

Charles Edwards

Issue #39

We have historically rare risk-asset signals appearing, amidst a period of Bitcoin's...

Charles Edwards

Issue #38

The last week has seen the biggest improvements across Bitcoin technicals and...

Charles Edwards

Issue #37

Bitcoin is pricing as a better-and-better inflation hedge. It is rapidly skewing...

Charles Edwards

Issue #36

The Fed is Building a War Chest. A macroeconomic deep dive to...

Charles Edwards

Issue #35

We are seeing some promising and rare structures form on Bitcoin which...

Charles Edwards

Issue #34

All else equal, Bitcoin is like a beach ball submerged underwater. Nonetheless,...

Charles Edwards

Issue #33

Last update technicals and fundamentals told us to be cautious with Bitcoin....

Charles Edwards

The Three Factor Model

90% of the S&P500 returns over the last half century can be...

Charles Edwards

Issue #32

Welcome to Capriole’s micro update #1. Where we consolidate the most important...

Charles Edwards

Issue #31

At $29K, Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals are not too hot and not too...

Charles Edwards

Issue #30

The failures of the Federal Reserve in managing the value of money...

Charles Edwards

Issue #29

This newsletter explores a taboo topic. The idea of the impossible, a...

Charles Edwards

Issue #28

Bitcoin’s deep value is slipping away and in its place a new...

Charles Edwards

Issue #27

We believe the 2020s will be the decade of hard money, much...

Charles Edwards

Why markets are not as overvalued as you might think.

Charles Edwards

Issue #26

The crypto world was shaken to the core in November as top...

Charles Edwards

Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure

Charles Edwards

The Bitcoin Yardstick

Charles Edwards

Issue #25

We crack open the rarest of Bitcoin value metric readings you can...

Charles Edwards

Everything you need to know about yield curves

Charles Edwards

Issue #24

This month we deep dive into the macro and make the case...

Charles Edwards

SLRV Ribbons

Charles Edwards

Issue #23

Fear struck the market again with a blunt Fed speech. The broader...

Charles Edwards

Issue #22

This issue we deep dive into the many Bitcoin and macro metrics...

Charles Edwards

Issue #21

Today, we now find ourselves in a special juncture in the crypto...

Charles Edwards

The Digital Asset Thesis

Charles Edwards

The Capriole Macro Index

Charles Edwards

Issue #20

The S&P500 and Bitcoin showcased a strong recovery recently and today both...

Charles Edwards

Issue #19

Traditional markets have been taking a beating. Our February Newsletter and analysis...

Charles Edwards

Issue #18

The first quarter of 2022 is coming to a close. War in...

Ryan McCoy

Issue #17

For the past few months, Bitcoin has been driven by macro events...

Yassine Zrigui

Issue #16

Last month was mostly dominated by macro news much like December, namely...

Mick Herfkens

Capriole’s 2022 Market Outlook

A year ago, we published our “Christmas Special” newsletter. We wrote the...

Charles Edwards

Issue #15

If you have been around the cryptospace long enough, you have probably...

Ryan McCoy

Issue #14

Bitcoin started the month of November strong with a new all time...

Mick Herfkens

Issue #13

Bitcoin is up over 30% to date in October, reaching as high...

Charles Edwards

A Simple Metric to Identify Bitcoin Tops

Charles Edwards

Issue #12

Last issue, at $47K we noted some concerning metrics, but noted the...

Charles Edwards

Issue #11

Last issue we noted the improving fundamentals for Bitcoin following...

Charles Edwards

Issue #10

Last issue we reviewed the China’s crypto exodus and argued why we...

Charles Edwards

Issue #9

These are unprecedented times. The Bitcoin network has just experienced the biggest...

Charles Edwards

Issue #8

Bitcoin is trading at more than 40% below the all-time high for...

Jan Uytenhout

Issue #7

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try...

Charles Edwards

Issue #6

Every month we write a short update on the market. Last issue,...

Jan Uytenhout

Issue #5

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try...

Charles Edwards

Issue #4

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try...

Jan Uytenhout

Issue #3

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try...

Charles Edwards

Issue #2

We try to release our newsletters when we see key opportunities. Today...

Jan Uytenhout

What is Money?

Charles Edwards

Issue #1

This newsletter provides our airplane view of the Bitcoin market. It summarises...

Charles Edwards

The Energy Standard

Charles Edwards

Bitcoin Energy-Value Equivalence

Charles Edwards

Bitcoin’s Production Cost

Charles Edwards

Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms

Charles Edwards

Metcalfe’s Law Says Bitcoin is Overvalued

Charles Edwards

Bitcoin Valuation using Dynamic Range NVT Signal

Charles Edwards

The Next Resession

Charles Edwards

Bitcoin Bottom Fishing with Miner Capitulation

Charles Edwards