The Energy Standard
Bitcoin is Henry Ford’s Energy Currency Ford’s Energy Currency 99 years ago, Henry Ford, one of the greatest businessmen of all time, planned the development of an “Energy Currency” to replace gold. Ford’s goal was to end wars which he argued were centered around the control of money: “The essential evil of gold in its […]
Bitcoin Energy-Value Equivalence
The Intrinsic Value of Bitcoin as Determined by Energy Spent Take-aways Bitcoin Energy-Value Equivalence In Bitcoin’s Production Cost we observed the relationship between Bitcoin’s Price and Bitcoin Mining expenditure. Variations in Bitcoin’s Production Cost were found to be primarily driven by the level of electrical energy input and energy efficiency of mining hardware, with many other factors […]
Bitcoin’s Production Cost
An Estimate of Bitcoin’s Production and Electrical Cost — a Historic Floor in Bitcoin’s Price. Takeaways This article links Bitcoin’s electrical consumption to the cost of Bitcoin production. In doing so we gain insight into the historical profitability of Bitcoin mining and an indication to when Bitcoin mining businesses are struggling. Over the last 5 […]
Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms
[EDIT 13 April 2023: Originally published on Medium in 2019, Hash Ribbons is perhaps the best performing long-term buy signal for Bitcoin. Hash Ribbons uses on-chain data to identify miner capitulations and recoveries. It is a top 50 / 100,000+ scripts on TradingView. Live indicator also on Glassnode.] When miners give up, it is possibly the […]
Metcalfe’s Law Says Bitcoin is Overvalued
Metcalfe’s Law has been tried and tested at valuing networks, including Bitcoin. Today, Metcalfe’s Law suggest we are currently in the longest period of overvaluation in Bitcoin’s history. Has Metcalfe’s Law stopped working, or are we in for more corrections? Metcalfe’s Law Metcalfe’s Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect […]
Bitcoin Valuation using Dynamic Range NVT Signal
NVT Signal, or Bitcoin’s “PE Ratio”, is one of the best metrics for identifying over-valuation. However, the drastically changing nature of the Bitcoin network, and movement off-chain, could make traditionally high NVT Signal values relatively less expensive in the future. Using a Dynamic Range NVT Signal allows for continued maturity in the Bitcoin network and […]
The Next Resession
A Real-Time Recession Indicator to warn you when the next recession is coming and why it might be less than 2 years away. Recession is coming. That’s what all the talk seems to be about in business news lately. In fact, google searches for “recession” spiked to their highest level since the 2008/2009 financial crisis […]
Bitcoin Bottom Fishing with Miner Capitulation
Identifying Bitcoin Bottoms with the Bitcoin ‘Hash Rate Capitulation’. Bitcoin miners keep the network alive. Miners ensure the validation of transactions and network security via sheer computational power. When the total Bitcoin hash rate goes down, it shows that miners are leaving Bitcoin. History has shown that Bitcoin miners are very resilient. It takes drastic […]