Research

Through all Bitcoin’s 17 years of history, the risk of a quantum attack was zero. That all changed in 2025. The discount factor for Q-Day is 20% today and growing…

And why a gold price over $12,000 makes sense.

How over 150 publicly listed companies are turning into Bitcoin treasury firms, the success of pioneers like Strategy, and the risks of over leverage and mNAV compression that could shape the future of digital assets…

Bitcoin Treasury Companies mNAVs are getting squeezed. Are Tradfi capital markets reaching exhaustion?

A world first release of live Bitcoin Treasury Company metrics and the incredible demand shock they are creating for Bitcoin…

Capriole’s Guardian Risk Manager tracks on-chain exchange risk 24/7. Here’s how it works and how you can use it.

90% of the S&P500 returns over the last half century can be explained by a simple three factor macroeconomic model. GDP, money supply and interest rates.

And why the Shiller PE Ratio is broken. Look back metrics for valuing markets say that the stock market is overvalued. But there is a big problem with lagging metrics like Shiller PE (the CAPE Ratio), the growth rate of company earnings has quadrupled over the last three decades. If we allow for the fact earnings […]

A new on-chain metric to track when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual. A common leading indicator of capitulations.  [Originally published on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1591024605640019968] Introducing: Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure. A free, open-source indicator which tracks on-chain data to highlight when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual. […]

A rule-of-thumb Bitcoin valuation tool. [Originally posted as a Twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1587737939588616192] Today we are seeing valuations unheard of since Bitcoin was $4K. Introducing a very simple, rule-of-thumb Bitcoin valuation tool: Bitcoin Yardstick = market-cap / hash-rate, normalized over 2 years of data. Similar in concept to a “PE Ratio”, except instead of stock […]

An analysis of 150-years of yield curve inversions and why they are a great forecasting tool. In this article we will cover: What on earth is a yield curve? Yield curve inversions have preceded every recession since 1956. You should understand them. The information in a yield curve is invaluable to the long-term investor. A […]

Introducing a Bitcoin strategy which uses on-chain investor flows to outperform Bitcoin. Introduction In issue 23 of the Capriole Newsletter we introduced a new Bitcoin on-chain metric, SLRV Ribbons. This article dissects this strategy and shows the benefits of on-chain analysis for Bitcoin investing. Based on backtests over the past 5 years, a simply long-or-cash portfolio using […]

A birds-eye view at Bitcoin and digital assets in 10 charts A Birds-eye View It’s easy to miss the forest for the trees when considering crypto. It’s too volatile, it’s too risky, it’s speculative. This article takes an aerial view of Bitcoin and digital assets. It’s a combination of historical performance facts we find convincing […]

An introduction to Capriole’s autonomous, fundamentals only, Bitcoin trading strategy which analyzes over 35 on-chain and macro market data points Capriole Investments is a quantitative asset manager. While we gain a lot of insight and learnings from visual charts and individual metrics, at the end of the day our assets are managed by automated algorithms which […]

Introducing: Supply Delta Identifying how strong and weak hands accumulate and distribute their Bitcoin provides a good leading indicator for identifying price tops and risk regions. In this article we introduce a simple metric “Supply Delta” which helps highlight when risk of a price top is locally high and may warrant tighter risk management. Supply […]

The economic fundamentals you need to know to preserve your wealth. Take-aways The missing link A critical piece of information is missing from our education system. A clear definition of money. When we graduate, we are expected to go into the world and work to grow money for our employer, money for our economy and […]

Bitcoin is Henry Ford’s Energy Currency Ford’s Energy Currency 99 years ago, Henry Ford, one of the greatest businessmen of all time, planned the development of an “Energy Currency” to replace gold. Ford’s goal was to end wars which he argued were centered around the control of money: “The essential evil of gold in its […]

The Intrinsic Value of Bitcoin as Determined by Energy Spent Take-aways Bitcoin Energy-Value Equivalence In Bitcoin’s Production Cost we observed the relationship between Bitcoin’s Price and Bitcoin Mining expenditure. Variations in Bitcoin’s Production Cost were found to be primarily driven by the level of electrical energy input and energy efficiency of mining hardware, with many other factors […]

An Estimate of Bitcoin’s Production and Electrical Cost — a Historic Floor in Bitcoin’s Price. Takeaways This article links Bitcoin’s electrical consumption to the cost of Bitcoin production. In doing so we gain insight into the historical profitability of Bitcoin mining and an indication to when Bitcoin mining businesses are struggling. Over the last 5 […]

[EDIT 13 April 2023: Originally published on Medium in 2019, Hash Ribbons is perhaps the best performing long-term buy signal for Bitcoin. Hash Ribbons uses on-chain data to identify miner capitulations and recoveries. It is a top 50 / 100,000+ scripts on TradingView. Live indicator also on Glassnode.] When miners give up, it is possibly the […]

Metcalfe’s Law has been tried and tested at valuing networks, including Bitcoin. Today, Metcalfe’s Law suggest we are currently in the longest period of overvaluation in Bitcoin’s history. Has Metcalfe’s Law stopped working, or are we in for more corrections? Metcalfe’s Law Metcalfe’s Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect […]

NVT Signal, or Bitcoin’s “PE Ratio”, is one of the best metrics for identifying over-valuation. However, the drastically changing nature of the Bitcoin network, and movement off-chain, could make traditionally high NVT Signal values relatively less expensive in the future. Using a Dynamic Range NVT Signal allows for continued maturity in the Bitcoin network and […]

A Real-Time Recession Indicator to warn you when the next recession is coming and why it might be less than 2 years away. Recession is coming. That’s what all the talk seems to be about in business news lately. In fact, google searches for “recession” spiked to their highest level since the 2008/2009 financial crisis […]

Identifying Bitcoin Bottoms with the Bitcoin ‘Hash Rate Capitulation’. Bitcoin miners keep the network alive. Miners ensure the validation of transactions and network security via sheer computational power. When the total Bitcoin hash rate goes down, it shows that miners are leaving Bitcoin. History has shown that Bitcoin miners are very resilient. It takes drastic […]