Newsletter

Institutions are suddenly selling Bitcoin as key support breaks. Is this the early warning of a deep slide—or the calm before a violent reversal?

Is the Bitcoin cycle dead? What are the most important metrics to navigate a market top? Read more inside…

Money and liquidity are providing the backdrop for capital flows and Bitcoin Treasury Companies are the funnel. This issue explains why Bitcoin’s major breakout wasn’t surprising if you were watching the right data…

Saddle up and welcome to the hard asset era. Is Gold on the cusp of outperforming equities by 500%? What would that mean for Bitcoin?

A tide change has just occured. A new Triple Put has emerged to backstop financial markets and Bitcoin has broken out. Here’s what the data is telling us…

Both Bitcoin technicals and fundamentals remain in a downtrend. Will the Federal Reserve’s recent policy change see risk asset liquidity bounce back?

In the near term, Bitcoin is at a pivot point. On-chain data looks poor, but the market is already positioned accordingly. The herd is rarely correct. We’re in Trump’s hands now…

The Trump presidency has kickstarted a wave of speculation about a possible Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. While the depth of it remains uncertain, recent and rapid fire news suggests a growing likelihood of something tangible brewing…

With Bitcoin in a peak performing quarter of its peak performing cycle year; will equities and macro support a strong risk-on market in 2025?

Slashing deregulation, tariffs, and a hawkish Fed? Here’s what it all means for markets and Bitcoin today and into 2025. Buckle up…

With a president who has already launched multiple NFTs and cryptocurrencies in the past, and has pledged to establish a US Bitcoin reserve. It’s starting to look increasingly likely that Bitcoin is entering the “then you win” phase…

Is retail dead? This issue we explore a conundrum that faces Bitcoin today. An apparent lack of retail activity and a trust void that has plagued Bitcoin since FTX…

Don’t trust on-chain data. A lot of metrics have been manipulated in 2024, but cutting through the noise we can see we are at a seasonally optimal juncture…

Bitcoin is under pressure. But the most comparable asset to Bitcoin, at its most comparable time in history, suggests the worst is over and great things lie ahead…

Is the cycle top in? This issue, we will revisit the Bitcoin Top-Signals. Brace yourself, it’s about to get bumpy…

Hash Ribbons is back. Perhaps the best long-term Bitcoin buy signal there is, Hash Ribbons is now tempting us with a new Miner Capitulation…

Is Bitcoin’s longest winning streak finally coming to an end?

A dive on the forth Bitcoin Halving, Runes, Onchain valuations and macroeconomic conditions. Here’s what some of the most important data is saying about Bitcoin…

Welcome to Bitcoin price discovery, it’s been a long time coming. With $100K the next most notable resistance level, we look to the biggest Halving in Bitcoin’s history with promise…

The era of deep value is over. Bitcoin is fairly valued for the first time in 2 years. Is it time to exercise caution?

With the big Fidelity news, Bitcoin is finally being acknowledged in traditional investment vehicles for the massive portfolio diversification benefits and outsized risk-adjusted rewards it adds…

The brand names of these two behemoths in the traditional asset space means every billion they bring in, adds an order of magnitude more credibility and flows to Bitcoin as a whole…

Today’s Bitcoin ETF launch was the most successful launch in history and paves the way for institutional adoption…

ETF fever is coming to a head with approvals expected within the next 3 weeks. We expect a lot of volatility…

Two major and positive events just unfolded in the Bitcoin space. According to the President, “the closure of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) is not a negotiable issue”…

Bitcoin is heating up, in both opportunity and across derivatives markets. And we have the strongest onchain growth since 2020…

A new major trend has formed. We now have the biggest asset managers in the world trumpeting Bitcoin as a “flight to quality” in the lead up to the Halving. You couldn’t ask for more.

We have historically rare risk-asset signals appearing, amidst a period of Bitcoin’s relative out-performance and de-correlation…

The last week has seen the biggest improvements across Bitcoin technicals and fundamentals since June…

Bitcoin is pricing as a better-and-better inflation hedge. It is rapidly skewing in favor of an incredibly opportunity and a 2024 squeeze…

The Fed is Building a War Chest. A macroeconomic deep dive to help set the stage for the coming Bitcoin bull run…

We are seeing some promising and rare structures form on Bitcoin which are worth paying attention to…

All else equal, Bitcoin is like a beach ball submerged underwater. Nonetheless, we remain in a technical breakdown…

Last update technicals and fundamentals told us to be cautious with Bitcoin. Caution has now turned into bearish confirmation with the $30K range breakdown.

Welcome to Capriole’s micro update #1. Where we consolidate the most important Bitcoin news, technicals and fundamentals into a 3-minute update.

At $29K, Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals are not too hot and not too cold. They are just right. Most on-chain fundamentals suggest…

The failures of the Federal Reserve in managing the value of money and the failures of the banking system to safeguard assets has once again but Bitcoin back in the spotlight.

This newsletter explores a taboo topic. The idea of the impossible, a soft landing. How could the Federal Reserve possibly go from zero interest rates, high debt and full employment to 5% interest rates, crushed inflation and no recession?

Bitcoin’s deep value is slipping away and in its place a new market structure is emerging. A new regime.

We believe the 2020s will be the decade of hard money, much like the 1970s was. Leaving stocks in the dust. If you agree, then the only question is which hard money will prevail?

The crypto world was shaken to the core in November as top three exchange FTX was exposed as the biggest fraud since Bernie Madoff and Enron.

We crack open the rarest of Bitcoin value metric readings you can count on one hand every 5 years. We dive into the troubling trend of demand…

This month we deep dive into the macro and make the case for the Fed Pivot being just around the corner. We explain why equities are not overvalued, why maximum fear is priced in and what all of this means for Bitcoin and crypto.

Fear struck the market again with a blunt Fed speech. The broader Bitcoin fundamental picture remains in a consistent value region and we can see potential signs of oversold technicals. The promising buds of a local-minima…

This issue we deep dive into the many Bitcoin and macro metrics showing signs of capitulation. The raw count of evidence for cyclical capitulation today is immense.

Today, we now find ourselves in a special juncture in the crypto cycle. Bitcoin has hit a down draw of -75% since November. More may come, but we are at a rare and historically valuable meeting point of price downdraw, halving cycle timing, and on-chain and fundamental metric discounts. As we outlined in our “Digital Asset Thesis” chart No. 10, we are now in the 6-12month window where Bitcoin halving cycle bottoms usually occur.

The S&P500 and Bitcoin showcased a strong recovery recently and today both markets find themselves at resistance, both fundamentally and technically.

Traditional markets have been taking a beating. Our February Newsletter and analysis of the impact of war on markets suggest that when considering war alone, most invasion events mark cyclical bottoms. So far this has been holding – by an inch…

The first quarter of 2022 is coming to a close. War in Europe and generational high inflation are our new reality. Markets have witnessed investors looking to risk-off, resulting in an exacerbation of the kind of…

For the past few months, Bitcoin has been driven by macro events like rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This month a new macro event has emerged which is impacting Bitcoin: the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

Last month was mostly dominated by macro news much like December, namely the expected rate hikes throughout the year and possible quantitative tightening. Bitcoin is still considered a risky asset and its correlation with equities is on the higher side lately…

A year ago, we published our “Christmas Special” newsletter. We wrote the following for our expectation of 2021

If you have been around the cryptospace long enough, you have probably noticed how decidedly un-Bitcoin Bitcoin has been this year.

Bitcoin started the month of November strong with a new all time high hitting $69K. But the party did not last long. Within a couple of hours the price retraced 5%.

Bitcoin is up over 30% to date in October, reaching as high as +53% last week. We printed new all time highs last week, but quickly rejected as excessive leveraged long positions piled up. Today we find ourselves at $58.5K.

Last issue, at $47K we noted some concerning metrics, but noted the data remained bullishly skewed into the end of August. Price continued to climb achieving two daily closes above $50K before collapsing through September. We did not expect this drastic a fakeout on claiming $50K.

Last issue we noted the improving fundamentals for Bitcoin following the China exodus and subsequent regulatory attack on Bitcoin.  We finished the newsletter noting: 

“For now, fundamentals and technicals are skewed towards the upside, and our base case is we will move towards the mid- to high-$40Ks over the coming weeks.”

Last issue we reviewed the China’s crypto exodus and argued why we believed the Bitcoin hash rate (then at 102 TH/s) was within 10% of the bottom as “China was no longer the risk factor to Bitcoin”. We were wary of S&P breakdown risk while Bitcoin remains vulnerable and noted the $32-40K range as the key levels to watch for.

These are unprecedented times. The Bitcoin network has just experienced the biggest attack in its history. 50% of Bitcoin’s security has been wiped out in just over a month as hash rates plummet from China’s mining ban.

Bitcoin is trading at more than 40% below the all-time high for the first time since October last year. Time for a quick overview of what has happened in the past month.

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try to time this around pivotal moments for Bitcoin. It can be hard to time a newsletter around a market top, as Bitcoin dumps quickly. A lot has happened in the last few days and this -22% flash crash represents a huge opportunity.

Every month we write a short update on the market. Last issue, when Bitcoin was $48K we noted: “Downside looks limited. A flushout of leveraged traders may be required before continuation, in which case low $4X,XXX K would be an attractive region to buy.”

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try to time this around pivotal moments for Bitcoin. We are writing this newsletter as Bitcoin has just achieved a new all time high of $50.8K and is currently trading at $48K, following the Microstrategy’s announcement they will be raising capital for $600M more Bitcoin.

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try to time this around pivotal moments for Bitcoin. We wrote the last issue when Bitcoin was $23.5K. We expected the bull-run to continue, with a dip being a further buying opportunity.

Every month we write a short update on the market. We try to time this around pivotal moments for Bitcoin. Our last issue evolved around the break of $14K, which we deemed significant and incredibly bullish. Our expectation was that Bitcoin would continue the run up, and potentially find major resistance between $19-20K. As it turned out, Bitcoin did face its first major pullback here and corrected to as low as $16.2K.

We try to release our newsletters when we see key opportunities. Today that was the clear price break above $14K. Unfortunately we are slow writers! Over the 3 hours since we started preparing this newsletter, Bitcoin climbed $500.

This newsletter provides our airplane view of the Bitcoin market. It summarises our medium- to long-term expectations for the market. It is not intended for high frequency trading.