Issue #16
Last month was mostly dominated by macro news much like December, namely the expected rate hikes throughout the year and possible quantitative tightening. Bitcoin is still considered a risky asset and its correlation with equities is on the higher side lately…
Capriole’s 2022 Market Outlook
A year ago, we published our “Christmas Special” newsletter. We wrote the following for our expectation of 2021
Issue #15
If you have been around the cryptospace long enough, you have probably noticed how decidedly un-Bitcoin Bitcoin has been this year.
Issue #14
Bitcoin started the month of November strong with a new all time high hitting $69K. But the party did not last long. Within a couple of hours the price retraced 5%.
Issue #13
Bitcoin is up over 30% to date in October, reaching as high as +53% last week. We printed new all time highs last week, but quickly rejected as excessive leveraged long positions piled up. Today we find ourselves at $58.5K.
Issue #12
Last issue, at $47K we noted some concerning metrics, but noted the data remained bullishly skewed into the end of August. Price continued to climb achieving two daily closes above $50K before collapsing through September. We did not expect this drastic a fakeout on claiming $50K.
Issue #11
Last issue we noted the improving fundamentals for Bitcoin following the China exodus and subsequent regulatory attack on Bitcoin. We finished the newsletter noting:
“For now, fundamentals and technicals are skewed towards the upside, and our base case is we will move towards the mid- to high-$40Ks over the coming weeks.”
Issue #10
Last issue we reviewed the China’s crypto exodus and argued why we believed the Bitcoin hash rate (then at 102 TH/s) was within 10% of the bottom as “China was no longer the risk factor to Bitcoin”. We were wary of S&P breakdown risk while Bitcoin remains vulnerable and noted the $32-40K range as the key levels to watch for.
Issue #9
These are unprecedented times. The Bitcoin network has just experienced the biggest attack in its history. 50% of Bitcoin’s security has been wiped out in just over a month as hash rates plummet from China’s mining ban.
Issue #8
Bitcoin is trading at more than 40% below the all-time high for the first time since October last year. Time for a quick overview of what has happened in the past month.